Middle East Conflict Reduces Air Cargo Capacity
10 march
# Market News
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has already caused significant disruptions to global air cargo logistics. Airspace closures and the suspension of operations at key regional airports have impacted international supply chains.
According to analysts at Xeneta, overall air cargo market capacity has decreased by approximately 16–18%. On certain trade lanes, however, the decline is much more severe. For example, in the Indian market – where Middle Eastern carriers such as Qatar Airways, Emirates, and Etihad play a major role – capacity has dropped by as much as 50–70%.
Experts note that the impact of current restrictions is driven less by rising costs and more by the reduction in available cargo capacity. This factor is expected to be the primary driver of air freight rate levels.
If the conflict persists, a significant increase in rates is likely. Market participants estimate that air cargo rates could rise by 2–4 times, similar to the surge seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact may extend across the global market, including routes not directly connected to the Middle East.
Capacity constraints are expected to lead to a redistribution of cargo flows and changes in commercial conditions for air carriers.
Amid ongoing uncertainty, market participants highlight high volatility in transportation conditions and the need for rapid adjustments to logistics strategies.
